U.S. Life Expectancy Declines in 2015 as Death Rates Rise

December 13, 2016

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2016/12/08/has-us-life-expectancy-maxed-out-first-decline-since-1993/95134818/

As reported in the above-linked article last week, the National Center for Health Statistics  (NCHS) reported that the average life expectancy for Americans born in 2015 actually fell by one month – from 78.9 years to 78.8 years.  Here’s a link to the full report:  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db267.pdf

This was the first decline since 1993 when the average life expectancy fell from 75.8 to 75.5 years – the only other decline since record-keeping of this statistic began in 1980.

One year does not make a trend, so one may question the significance of the decline.  However, there is a trend evident in the data.  Prior to 2o15, the longest stretch of flat life expectancy was three years, from 1984 to 1986, when the average life expectancy held at 74.7 years.  The decline in 2015 brings life expectancy to the same level it was at four years ago in 2012.  And it’s not as though human life expectancy is reaching some sort of limit at that level.  Thirty nations have a higher life expectancy – extending well into the 80’s.

Average life expectancy is a function of the death rate.  The NCHS lists the top ten leading causes of death in the U.S.  Among these top ten causes, the death rate rose for all but one – cancer.  But in spite of the fact that cancer and heart disease are far and away the two leading causes of death, the rise in every category except cancer was enough to more than offset the decline in the death rate due to cancer.  It seems that there may be something at work that crosses all categories of death rate.

It’s very likely that that underlying cause is worsening poverty.  Though poverty is never considered a cause of death, being an outside factor instead of a medical factor, it is far and away the number one killer in the world.  Consider this:  among those nations with a longer life expectancy than the U.S., the average “purchasing power parity” (or “PPP,” a measure of income) is over $41,000, the thirteen nations who rank at the bottom in terms of life expectancy (less than 50 in some cases) have an average PPP of less than $3,000.  It takes money to live a long life.  It takes money to pay for health care, to eat a healthy diet, to maintain vehicles in a safe condition, to hold depression at bay, and so on.

The U.S. ranks right up there (19th) with the top nations in terms of PPP.  However, the median household income peaked in the U.S. in 1999 at $57,909.  By 2012 it had slipped to $52,666.  It should come as no surprise, then, that average life expectancy since that time has been flat or, as in 2015, actually declining.

This is precisely the outcome, the inescapable collision between a growing population density and declining per capita consumption, that I warned of in Five Short Blasts.  Relying on population growth as a crutch for economic growth, the U.S. has continued to grow its actual population and has dramatically exacerbated the effect by exploding its “effective” population by engaging in free trade with badly overpopulated nations.  The manufacturing sector of our economy has been gutted and the supply-demand equation for labor has been thrown out-of-balance, driving down incomes.

The Obama administration can fool itself all it wants with its gimmicked statistics on jobs and unemployment, but they can’t alter the real world consequences of its failed trade and immigration policies.  Poverty is the very mechanism by which nature will eventually correct the problem of human overpopulation.  The 2015 life expectancy data may be the first indication that that process has begun in America.

 


“Global economy a world of hurt for U.S. workers” by Cynthia Tucker

April 26, 2008

http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/opinion/tucker/stories/2008/04/25/tucked_0427.html

This op-ed piece is by Cynthia Tucker, columnist for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  She has appeared on the PBS News Hour with Jim Lehrer many times over the years and is a highly respected journalist.

She absolutely hits the nail on the head with this piece in which she takes John McCain to task, but her criticism could apply equally to virtually any politician.  This editorial is a must read!  Following are a couple of key quotes:

“The campaign stop, part of McCain’s tour of “forgotten places,” highlighted the senator’s reputed penchant for straight talk, for refusing to pander no matter how unpopular his message. “Protectionism and isolationism have never worked in American history,” McCain said, according to The Associated Press.

He may be right, but McCain’s message would be more palatable if he were offering hard-pressed workers something other than the same dried-out message about education and job training. Retraining for what?”

Exactly!  I’ve wanted to scream the same question at the television every time I hear another politician suggest “job retraining” for displaced workers!  And I can’t let McCain’s lie that “Protectionism and isolationism have never worked…” pass.  The fact is that for the first 170 years of our nation’s history, we relied upon tariffs for all of our federal revenue and to afford domestic industry the protection it needed to grow.  As a result, we built ourselves into the most powerful, wealthy nation the world had ever seen – its preeminent industrial power and the envy of every nation.  By contrast, since turning toward “free” trade with the signing of the Global Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in 1947, our nation has been reduced to a skid row bum, literally begging the rest of the world for cash to keep us afloat.  McCain was right when he said he knew almost nothing about economics. 

“Here’s what the new economy has done for the average American: precious little. In 2000, median yearly household income, in 2006 dollars, was $49,447, according to The Wall Street Journal, which crunched data from the Census Bureau. By 2006, median household income had fallen to $48,223.”

In 1973 it was $40,000.  Take away the enormous increase enjoyed by the top one or two percent, and factor out the understatement of inflation by the Consumer Price Index, and you’d find that it has actually declined since then.  In other words, Americans are worse off today than they were 35 years ago. 

“… Princeton economist Alan Blinder, a longtime proponent of cross-border commerce, now says that it will create more severe social and economic upheaval than he once believed. He predicts that 30 million to 40 million American jobs are likely to be shipped overseas in the next 10 to 20 years, some of them in white-collar occupations such as financial analyst, microbiologist, graphic designer, radiologist and, oddly, economist.”

Alan Blinder is a former Fed governor and a long-time cheerleader for “free” trade and the supposed “benefits” it was going to bring to America.  Thanks for nothing, Alan!

“Those who still put great faith in free trade — Democrats and Republicans alike — need to look beyond their platitudes to see the displacement and anxiety it has created among middle-class workers. Their worries are not born of ideology but of a hard and bitter experience that has left them anxious about the future. When the factory where you’ve worked for years shuts down or your company stops offering health insurance, you’re not much interested in hearing about Adam Smith and theories of comparative advantage.”

It’s especially encouraging to hear someone call into question Ricardo’s (not Smith’s) principle of comparative advantage, the economic theory upon which the concept of “free” trade is based!

It’s great to see more and more prominent economists and journalists beginning to wake up to what’s being done to our country by “free” (blind!) trade. 

Pete