U.S. Food Deficit Grows Along with Population

We were once known as “The World’s Bread Basket.” But no more. My primary interest in trade data is focused on manufactured goods, since a trade deficit in that category of goods supports my theory that, thanks to the inverse relationship between per capita consumption and population density, it’s inescapable that trade with overpopulated nations will yield a trade deficit. However, I’ve also kept an eye on our balance of trade in food, since it could be an indicator of overpopulation in our own country.

As the U.S. population has grown, our trade surplus steadily shrank. By 2015, it was gone. Now, as the population continues to grow (almost all growth in the U.S. population is due to immigration), we now have a growing trade deficit in food. Check this chart of our food trade deficit. The data for 2021 is year-to-date through the month of September. Annualized, the deficit for 2021 will come in at about $21 billion – a record deficit in food for the U.S.

Let’s do some math. In six years, we’ve gone from a balance of trade in food to a deficit of $21 billion. Now, let’s assume that it takes about $10/day to feed a person in the U.S. That’s $3,650 per year. Divide $21 billion by $3,650 and that deficit represents what it takes to feed 5.75 million people. In 2015, our population was 322 million. It’s now 333 million. That’s a growth in the population of about 11 million people.

So, the population has grown by 11 million people in six years, and our food deficit has grown by an amount that it would take to feed half of them. One can conclude that, despite improvements in crop yield, we’re falling further behind in our efforts to feed our own population. We now find ourselves in the position where we have to rely on other “Bread Basket” nations less densely populated than ourselves, like Canada, Australia and South American nations.

It’s a sad state of affairs when America can’t even feed itself any more. Immigrants, pack a lunch and bring a cooler and a basket full of food with you. You’re going to need it.

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