Trump’s “Shithole Countries” Remark

January 17, 2018

I’ve been torn about whether or not to comment on this controversy since, by its nature, the topic violates my own site rules about the use of profanity.  Since it has now become so central to the debate over immigration, however, it’s impossible for me to ignore, since immigration is one of a few topics that lies at the core of my campaign against destructive population growth.

Let’s back up a bit and examine what it was that elicited such an angry response from Trump.  In exchange for generously offering to not just change the temporary status of DACA immigrants (“deferred action childhood arrivals” – kids brought here by illegal aliens) to permanent status, but to even grant them a path to citizenship, Trump insisted on three additional things:

  • an end to “chain migration,” the visa program that allows immigrants to apply for visas for family members, who then are eligible to bring in more family members – creating an endless and exponentially expanding flow of immigration,
  • an end to the “diversity visa lottery” program, which brings in another 50,000 immigrants per year from countries who are “under-represented” in the general U.S. population,
  • funding for the border wall, currently estimated at $18 billion.

These are reasonable immigration reforms that most Americans agree with.  He had said that he was willing to sign any bill that met these criteria.

So here’s the bill that senators Dick Durbin (D) and Lindsey Graham (R) brought to him:

  • DACA immigrants would be barred from the chain migration process.  The 690,000 DACA “kids” would not be able to apply for re-entry for their parents.  Otherwise, chain migration continues as usual for other immigrants, probably numbering somewhere around 25-30 million.
  • The “diversity visa lottery” program would end, but the 50,000 immigrants would be reallocated to other visa programs.
  • Only about 10% of the border wall funding was included, plus a little more funding for other “non-wall” border security.
  • Extending “temporary protected status” to 437,000 immigrants from El Salvador, Honduras, Haiti, Nicaragua, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen.

In other words, Durbin and Graham tried to play Trump for a fool, offering him a bill that did absolutely nothing to rein in our out-of-control immigration, if anything making it worse.  It’s no wonder that he was incensed enough to lapse into the use of a vulgarity in a “behind the doors” meeting.  Most people would in that situation.

Durbin saw an opportunity to stir up hysteria, characterizing Trump’s remark as “racist.”  It was nothing of the sort.  While there is no formal definition of the word “shithole,” it’s clearly a vulgar term used to describe a foul place, not a person or people.  In terms of poverty, political corruption, violence, extremism, a failure to meet basic human needs and a denial of human rights, these are foul places.  Places like El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen and others (unfortunately disproportionately represented by Africa) are, in fact, “shitholes.”  That’s not meant to demean the people of those countries, but their unfortunate circumstances.  If a country is so bad that no one – not even its own citizens – wants to live there, then it is a shithole.

Trump then reportedly went on to ask, “why don’t we bring in more people from places like Norway?”  (Trump had just visited with the prime minister of Norway and, reportedly, was highly impressed.)  It’s this contrasting of Norway with the aforementioned places that may have hinted at racism, a suspicion that has dogged Trump beginning with this comments about Mexican immigrants early in his campaign.  Is Trump a racist?  I don’t know.  What I do know for sure is that Trump is a “money-ist.”  He’s been all about money his whole life.  So while African countries are black and Norway is snow-white, it’s also true that African countries generally rank right at the bottom in terms of GDP (gross domestic product) per capita while Norway ranks at the very top – well above the U.S.  So was he really expressing a preference for wealthy, merit-based based immigrants or a preference for white immigrants over black immigrants?  He has said all along that he wants a more merit-based immigration system.  (By the way, just as an aside, Norway is one of many countries that does not have birthright citizenship, unlike the U.S.  Just being born there doesn’t make you a citizen.  Birthright citizenship is something else I’d like to see Trump address.)

Since the hysteria erupted over the “shithole” epithet, Lindsey Graham has characterized it as a “shithole show,” and has blamed Trump and his staff.  Baloney.  Graham and Durbin are to blame for pushing him over the edge when they tried to sucker him and play him for a fool.  They tried to play the American people for fools, like they always do.  They believe that if you polish a turd shiny enough to make it look like an apple, the American people will swallow anything.  The American people elected Trump to put an end to this crap.

Now they’re trying to back Trump into a corner, threatening a government shutdown if he doesn’t agree to this immigration sham.  I hope he doesn’t.  It’s time to stand firm and force a real change in our out-of-control immigration policy.  Let the government shut down.  If Congress doesn’t want to reform immigration in exchange for Trump’s generous offer to give the DACA kids a path to citizenship, then they don’t really care about the DACA kids.

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December Jobs Report Weaker than It Looks

January 12, 2018

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The headline number from the December employment report (link above) was a bit disappointing.  The economy added only 148,000 jobs vs. expectations for approximately 191,000 and vs. 252,000 added in November – especially disappointing considering that this was the peak of the retail shopping season.  Unemployment held steady at 4.1%.  (But not really.)

Look into the details and the report is even weaker.  The employment level, a figure taken from the household survey (vs. the establishment survey, which is where the 148,000 jobs figure comes from) rose by only 103,000.  But that’s not the worst part.  Employment and job creation numbers are meaningless without the context of population.  December is the month when the Census Bureau updates its estimate of population (during non-census years).  This time around it boosted the population by 549,000 (to just under 327 million people) vs. a normal monthly increase of about 170,000.  Of course, the population didn’t jump by that much in December.  It just means that the Census Bureau discovered that it has been underestimating population growth during 2017.  That means that growth in the labor force has been underestimated for the purposes of calculating unemployment.  If the actual size of the labor force was used in the calculation, instead of estimating it based on how many people were looking for work, unemployment actually rose in December by 0.1% to 7.2%, the third consecutive increase in that number.  And per capita employment has fallen for the third consecutive month.  Check the chart:  Per Capita Employment.  And the number of unemployed Americans rose for the third consecutive month to over 12 million.  Here’s the chart:  Unemployed Americans.

Enthusiasm over the Trump administration’s policies will only carry the economy so far.  Without the kind of meaningful trade policy reform that Trump promised during his campaign, it’s going to stall out.  This data may be an indication that that’s beginning to happen.


Another Month, Another Record Trade Deficit

January 6, 2018

Yesterday the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the international trade data for the month of November:

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2018/pdf/trad1117.pdf

The overall deficit rose to $50.5 billion, the worst reading since January of 2012, but not quite a record, thanks to steady, dramatic improvement in the balance of trade in petroleum products which, at one time, used to be the driving force behind the trade deficit.  But no more.  What drives the deficit now is manufactured products, and the deficit in that category hit a new record in November of $65.1 billion, topping the previous record of $64.7 billion set only one month earlier.  Check out this chart:  Manf’d Goods Balance of Trade.  Exports of manufactured goods rose to their highest level since December of 2014, but that rise was swamped by a jump in imports to a new record of $176.8 billion.  Here’s a chart of imports and exports that also shows the goal that Obama had set in January of 2010 to double exports within five years:  Manf’d exports vs. goal.  It never happened.  It never will.

Scrapping existing trade deals and returning to the use of tariffs to restore a balance of trade, bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., was the centerpiece of Trump’s promise to “Make America Great Again.”  So far, all we’ve gotten is the same dithering on trade that we’ve gotten from previous administrations for decades.  This trade data shows that instead of becoming great again – at least in the manufacturing sector of the economy – America is getting worse.  This isn’t what Americans voted for a year ago.

 


Family immigration plunged in 2017

January 5, 2018

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-effect-immigration/fewer-family-visas-approved-as-trump-toughens-vetting-of-immigrants-reuters-review-idUSKBN1ET15I

The above-linked article appeared on Reuters yesterday, reporting that in 2017, family-based immigration dropped dramatically.  But it’s not as though few visas are being approved.  The charts embedded in the article also paint a picture of just how out-of-control immigration had gotten since 2000.  Virtually all U.S. population growth is due to immigration, both legal and illegal, and family-based immigration accounts for at least half of that growth.  In 2015, over one million family, fiance and “other relative” visas were approved.  But in 2017:

  1. Family visas fell to 541,000 vs. 755,000 in 2015, a drop of 28%.
  2. “Other relative” visas fell to 62,000 in 2017 vs. 254,000 in 2015, a drop of 76%.
  3. Fiance visas fell to 33,000 in 2017 vs. 54,000 in 2015, a drop of 39%.

In addition, the Trump administration is seeking even more drastic cuts as a condition for allowing DACA immigrants (children brought here illegally by their parents) to remain permanently in the U.S.

And, based upon monthly border arrest data, illegal immigration declined in 2017 by about 40% – roughly equivalent to 400,000 people.

Add all this up and U.S. immigration in 2017 was cut almost in half, by over one million people.

It’s also important to note that, contrary to the dire predictions of economic decline by immigration advocates who claim that immigration is critical to providing needed skills and entrepreneurship, the decline in immigration in 2017 has been accompanied by a surging economy.

Trump should be applauded for doing a fantastic job of following through on his campaign promise to rein in out-of-control immigration.


2018 Predictions Posted

January 3, 2018

I just posted my annual predictions for 2018.  Check them out:  https://petemurphy.wordpress.com/more-good-stuff/predictions/2018-predictions/.