The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that the economy added 96,000 jobs while unemployment fell to 8.1%.
The number of jobs added (as reported by the “establishment survey” portion of the report) fell well short of the number need to keep pace with growth in the labor force – about 125,000 per month (thanks primarily to the idiotic practice of importing more workers).
So we should have seen a rise in unemployment. Instead, the unemployment rate, which is determined by the “household survey” part of the report, fell by 0.2% to 8.1%. Why? Because, as noted broadly throughout the media on Friday, another 368,000 workers mysteriously vanished from the labor force once again. Since August 2008 (exactly four years ago), the population has grown by nearly 10 million people. Yet, during that time frame, the size of the civilian labor force actually shrank by 1,000 workers. Of the ten million people we’ve added in the past four years, not a single one needs to work for a living? Puh-lease. No one could be gullible enough to believe this. Here’s a prediction: next month (the last report before the election), the labor force will shrink further, enought to bring the unemployment rate down to 7.9% – the level it was at when Obama took office.
But, while the media correctly reported on the supposed-contraction in the labor force as a bogus reason for the lower unemployment rate, amazingly (to me, at least), none reported the fact that the “employment level” from the same household survey – the equivalent of the establishment survey report of the number of jobs created – actually declined by 119,000 jobs.
Here’s the data from the household survey, which includes a calculation of unemployment that’s more realistic, holding the size of the labor force as a fixed percentage of the population: Unemployment Calculation.
And here’s a chart of the unemployment rates: Unemployment Chart. Note the divergence between government myth (U3 and U6) vs. reality (U3a and U6a) since the beginning of the recession, in spite of the fact that they were in perfect agreement before the recession began. And note how very little progress has been made in reducing real unemployment.
To underscore the point about the lack of growth in the labor force in spite of growing the population by 10 million, here’s a chart of those two figures, along with the employment level, which fell for the 2nd month in a row: Labor Force & Employment Level
Per Capita Employment also fell for the 2nd month and it remains near its lowest level of the recession. This figure is analagous to the BLS’s “labor force participation rate” which, as was also broadly reported in the media on Friday, fell to its lowest level since the 1930s.
The number of Unemployed Americans rose to its highest level since December of last year – over 17.5 million unemployed. (And that doesn’t include the under-employed.)
The point here is that unemployment isn’t getting better, and it’s no surprise to anyone who understands that the root causes of our high unemployment – the trade deficit and continued immigration-driven population growth – have been completely ignored by this president, just as it has been for the past two generations.