Bush “Clear and candid” on Economy

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-05-03-bush-economy_N.htm#close-share-help

The President probably has been “clear and candid” about his beliefs about the economy.  The problem is that, largely thanks to advisors, economists and business executives, he’s been badly misguided about what’s really wrong with the economy and what needs to be done to fix it for the common good

“Bush sounded an upbeat tone following a modest uptick of economic news this week.

The economy grew in the first quarter of the year, but only by a meager 0.6%. Yet it was not the contraction that some analysts feared. Employers slashed fewer jobs in April than they had in earlier months. The unemployment rate in April also fell slightly.”

While the economy may have grown by 0.6% as measured by GDP (gross domestic product - a lousy measure of the health of the economy), per capita chained GDP - GDP adjusted for inflation and population growth, actually contracted by 3.0%.  If you use the total rate of inflation (not the “core” which strips out food and energy inflation), the the drop in per capita chained GDP rises to over 4% - a significant recession.  And the unemployment figure is completely worthless.  If every worker worked for one hour during the month and made only $5, that would be considered 0% unemployment.  A much more meaningful figure is weekly jobless claims of 350-400,000, which is an annual rate of 13% of the work force filing for unemployment. 

“‘No temporary setbacks can hold back the most powerful force in our economy — the ingenuity of the American people,’ Bush said. ‘Because of your hard work and dedication, I am confident that we will weather this rough period and emerge stronger than ever.’”

While the ingenuity of the American people is second to none, no amount of cheerleading can overcome the effects of foolish trade policy.  The effects of attempting to trade freely with overpopulated nations can’t be overcome by any amount of ingenuity, unless it’s the kind of genius that finally comes to realize that we need to go back to the only trade policy that ever worked for us - tariffs.  And is the “rough period” he’s referencing the last 30-35 years?  Because that’s how long our economy has been in decline.  I agree with him, the ingenuity of the American people isn’t the problem.  It’s the lack of ingenuity at the top levels of our leadership, and their failure to comprehend the devastation being wrought by failed trade policies that are rapidly bankrupting our country. 

“In Bush’s final year in office, families have been hit from all sides — soaring gas prices, crumbling mortgages, rising grocery bills, struggles to afford college loans.”

But, hey, food and energy aren’t part of the calculation of the “core rate” of inflation, so let’s just ignore them!  Maybe no one will notice.

“The president is counting on a short-term economic boost to help. In a deal he reached with Congress back in February, tax rebate checks of up to $600 for individuals and $1,200 for couples are on their way to more than 130 million households.”

Yeah, that’ll help.  A one-time 1% boost in our median annual income will really make a difference in our three decade decline.  Throw the peasants a few crumbs.  That’ll make ‘em happy. 

“Among his (Bush’s) agenda for lawmakers: make permanent his first-term tax cuts, which are due to expire in 2010; allow drilling for oil in northern Alaska and encourage more oil refining capacity; and modernize the Federal Housing Administration to allow some additional homeowners to refinance from subprime loans into government-backed mortgages.”

More deficit spending, more prolonged dependence on fossil fuels, and no mention of the role of overpopulation in eroding our quality of life and the role of idiotic trade policy that has produced a cumulative $9 trillion trade deficit since 1976. 

Without real leadership soon, this country’s downward spiral will accelerate. 

Pete

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